My first posts are going to break down the contenders. Despite all the hype that the local press and teams put out there about how "this is their year", there are very few actual title contenders. A title contender has to meet the following criteria: a LEGIT chance of making it all the way to the Finals AND winning.
For an example of what a contender is not, let us look at the New Jersey Nets of 2002. They made it to the Finals and got swept by the Lakers. They were NOT contenders because they did not have a prayer of actually winning the title, even though they were in the Finals.
For the 2010-2011 season, barring injury or major trade, there are only 3 legitimate contenders for the title - the Lakers, the Celtics, and the Heat. Period.
Another thing I look at with teams is how good is the best player on your team. For example, the best player on the Timberwolves is arguably Michael Beasley. On a championship team, he would probably be the fourth or fifth best player (which gives you an idea of how good that team will be).
With that, let the analyses begin!
CONTENDER #1: THE LAKERS
The two-time defending champs got better this summer. But so did the rest of the contenders. Coming off perhaps the hardest fought 7 game series in the history of the NBA Finals will have done one of two things for the Lakers. One, it may have developed their mettle to a point no other team can compete with. Or two, the satisfaction of the victory is so high that the effort will not be there this year. Because of this, it actually benefits the Lakers that Miami did what they did. Guys like Phil, Kobe, and Derek, who have won consecutive championships, know that the biggest concern for the team will be finding where the next challenge lies. Miami created that challenge for them. I guarantee you that those 3 Lakers are as excited for this season as they have ever been.
As far as the other big names are concerned, Ron Artest, Pau Gasol, and Lamar Odom are ready to go. Artest is in even better shape than he was at the end of last season and has vowed to continue to take take care of his body. Lamar Odom, having played all summer for USA basketball, is already in mid-season form. And at this point, Pau Gasol is arguably the most complete big man in the game.
The bench got WAY better. Kudos to Mitch Kupchak. He kicked Jordan Farmar, DJ Mbenga, and Josh Powell to the curb. In Farmar's place, we got Steve Blake, who is considerably more reliable than Farmar, and will give Fisher a lot of time off. Theo Ratliff, even at 37, is a significant upgrade over Mbenga and Powell. Matt Barnes will add toughness and defense to that second unit that was missing last season. And we may even see some Luke Walton sightings this year.
The Lakers also had a great draft considering that they had two second round picks. Caracter is an undersized big and will have trouble with the NBA's 7 footers. But he will be a rebounding machine and has a nice offensive game as well. Due to his size, I don't see him blowing up, but he can certainly contribute.
Devin Ebanks is very intriguing. He looks like Ariza and has the defense tenacity of Ariza. However, there are stark differences. He does not have Ariza's freakish athleticism. The only freakish athlete remaining on this team is Shannon Brown. But according to Kobe and Artest, Ebanks has a lot of offensive skills. I cannot wait to see what he can do.
What will ultimately make or break the Lakers' season is the health of Andrew Bynum. He is the x-factor for this team come playoff team. He is bigger than Kendrick Perkins and can match up with Shaq should the Lakers face Boston.
He is even more vital against Miami. In the 4th quarter, Miamis is going to have Wade, Lebron, Bosh, Mike Miller, and one of their garbage big men on the floor. The Lakers can play straight up defense by putting Kobe, Artest, Barnes, Pau, and Bynum on the floor. Bynum is the key there. All the other positions are neutralized. It is the center position where the Lakers will have to take advantage.
Unfortunately, Bynum has yet to make it to the playoffs healthy. If he can this year (and the rest of the team is healthy), the Lakers will be very tough to beat.
STRENGTHS: have the best coach, the best player, and the highest IQ of any basketball team in the NBA. They also have unmatched size which gives them a unique advantage because it allows them to play much more one-on-one defense (Jackson hates doubling opposing players). Plus, they are back to back champions.
WEAKNESSES: Health. Will Bynum ever make it through a full season and the playoffs healthy? If so, he is an all-star center. Otherwise, they need to be really careful with his minutes. Kobe's health is also an issue. He is very durable and will play through any pain, but he needs his knees and ankles to be healthy come playoff time.
CONTENDER #2: THE CELTICS
Even though Shaq is 487 years old at this point, the Celtics are an ideal fit for him. The two things that the Celtics needed more than anything to improve are size and Rondo converting more free throws. Shaq takes care of one of those issues. I don't know how much he will have left in the tank by June. He has not played during June in half a decade, so it remains to be seen.
Also, if you are looking to get something from Jermaine O'Neal, don't hold your breath. That guy was a NOVA signing (No Value Added). He has been playing on one leg for years now. Against the Gasols, Bynums, Boshes, and Howards of the world, he is going to get taken to school. The Celtics will need a full recovery from Kendrik Perkins and improved mobility from Garnett in order to be a legitimate title threat this year.
Doc Rivers is probably the most underrated coach in the NBA. People forget that he took a bunch of castoffs led by Chucky Atkins to the playoffs when he was coaching in Orlando. And he instantly gained the respect of Boston's Big 3.
I really like Nate Robinson and Glen Davis coming off the bench. They are tempo changers who can bust a game wide open for the Celtics.
And then there is Rondo. Freakishly athletic. If he can make a free throw, there is no telling what this team will be capable of. He seems to get caught up in one-on-one matches during the season, but come playoff time, he brings it. So much attention is paid to the Big 3 that Rondo has opportunities to have a lot of great games. He is an excellent rebounder at the guard position and gets quite a few steals. Rondo is a threat for a triple-double every time he steps on the floor.
The Celtics lost Tony Allen, whose defense I felt really helped that second unit. However, they did sign Von Wafer. The guy is a wild card. Lots of athleticism. Had a really good year with Houston a couple of years ago. He is also the most caffeinated looking player in the NBA. The dude always looks like he has just downed 15 Red Bulls. But he can really be a difference maker for this team.
Marquis Daniels is supposedly healthy this year, but I feel like his best years were in Dallas. Don't expect much more than the occassional good game from him.
Another x-factor for this team will be Ray Allen - he of the Jekyl and Hyde performances in the playoffs. One game, he is setting all-time records. The next, he is laying bricks.
Mentally, it will be interesting to see how this team reacts to that hard fought Finals loss. Either it will pump them up and motivate them even more, or they feel broken inside. I'm guessing that they are plenty motivated, especially considering what happened in Miami.
STRENGTHS: This team has championship experience, great players, and a great coach. They and the Lakers have the highest basketball IQs of any teams in the NBA. Paul Pierce is a bonafide stud.
WEAKNESSES: Garnett is old. He looked old last year. He is still a great player, but he is not the $20 million player he was before his injury. Size and rebounding are still issues. Not sure what Shaq has left, but if any team can maximize his abilities, this is it. Two of their top players (Rondo and Shaq) will kill them at the free throw line. They still do not have a dominant rebounder. Will need to do this collectively.
CONTENDER #3: THE HEAT
You have got to hand it to Pat Riley. He can make it happen. He bought Shaq to get Miami a championship. The team went to hell, but then he positioned them financially to build a dream team of sorts.
Wade, James, and Bosh make for quite an interesting threesome. Expectations will be high because they are so damn good. And then to get Mike Miller on top of that? Wow!
That being said, there is only one basketball. Keep in mind that the Lakers of 2004 had Payton, Malone, Kobe, and Shaq, and were unable to win a championship. Jerry West, Elgin Baylor, and Wilt Chamberlain could not win a championship together (they won after Elgin retired). So there is a lot of work for this group to win come June.
A lot of people are eyeing point guard as a weak spot on this team. Nonsense. Lebron and Wade will be handling the ball and running the offense most of the time anyway. And because so much focus will be on them, Bosh will get the easiest rebounds and points that he has ever had in the league. If he does not lead the league in rebounds, then there is something wrong.
Center should be a concern for this group. This is where teams like the Lakers, the Celtics, Orlando, and to a lesser extent, Chicago can exploit them. Don't be surprised if Riley makes some sort of mid-season trade to get some help here.
This team will be fun to watch. Can't wait to see how they respond to getting booed everywhere they go. These guys are not used to being the villains. I imagine they will handle it fine. The big concern will be how they play come playoff time. Bosh has very little experience with playoff pressure. The playoffs will either expose him or turn him into a beast the way it did Gasol.
STRENGTHS: Unbelievable talent. Athleticisim. And importantly, Spoelstra has their respect.
WEAKNESSES: Their two biggest rivals - the Celtics and the Lakers - are not afraid of them. Lebron will brick free throws in the 4th quarter like he always does. And Wade needs to stay healthy in order for this all to work.
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