Thursday, October 14, 2010

THE PRETENDERS

The pretenders are teams that will have a lot of hype.  Their teams will sell their fans on championship aspirations and fans will be holding up signs that read "We Believe" throughout the team's playoff run.  Theoretically, these teams should go pretty deep in the playoffs, but, unless there are injuries to the contenders or there is a large trade, these teams do not quite have what it takes to win a championship this year.  Nonetheless, they will be fun to watch.  These teams include:

Chicago
Orlando
Dallas
Oklahoma
San Antonio
Utah

PRETENDER #1: THE BULLS

There is something very special happening in Chicago.  And his name is Derrick Rose.  I just saw him hit a 3 pointer at the end of regulation to tie Dallas in a pre-season game.  The summer he had with USA basketball brought him up to another level.  This guys is something else.  In fact, I really wanted to put the Bulls on the "Contender" list because of this guy.  Not only is he a legit starter on a championship team, but he's a legit #1 or #2 player on a championship team.  He is lightning quick, has excellent size for his position, and knows how to compete.

I've always thought Carlos Boozer was an overrated player.  He gets numbers, but is undersized and limited on defense.  However, putting him alongside Noah is going to make both of those guys better.  They complement each other as well as any frontline in the NBA.

Rose, Korver, Deng, Boozer, and Noah make for a formidable lineup.  Chicago FINALLY has a post player and go-to scorer in Boozer.  Korver is a shooter with size (no offense Ben Gordon).  Noah is a mobile legit center.  And I think this team has the personnel to adjust to Thibodeau's defensive-minded strategy. 

My major concern for this team is depth.  Ronnie Brewer and Taj Gibson are okay...but you have a team with two injury prone starters in Boozer and Deng.  They need more help off the bench.  That being said, the Eastern Conference Finals is a legitimate goal for this team.

If Carmelo Anthony  is serious about winning a championship in his career (which I doubt), then he will play out his contract and sign with the Bulls next year.

STRENGTHS:  Derrick Rose, solid starting five, and they finally have a go-to scorer in the post.

WEAKNESSES:  Thibodeau is a new head coach.  He has been a very respected assistant, but that does not always translate to the head coaching position.  Also, Boozer is made out of glass.  The season hasn't even started and he is already out until Thanksgiving with a broken finger. 

PRETENDER #2: THE MAGIC


A lot of people will be pissed that I did not put this team on the contender list.  Cry me a river.  There are two ways to get better: either your roster improves or your players improve internally.  Does anybody think either has happened?  Yes, I'm sure Dwight Howard has been working out all season, but deltoids don't win championships.



However, the title hopes for this team are dependent on Dwight Howard.  People keep comparing him to Shaq (even though he looks like a small forward standing next to Shaq).  If Dwight truly wants to be one of the all-time greats, he needs to do it on the offensive end of the floor, too.  I know he has been working on his offensive game all summer, but we here that every year and nothing changes.  Heck, I've seen Kwame Brown take this guy out of his offense.  Kwame Brown. 

Let me break it down for you.  Last year, Howard averaged 10.7 shots per game and a 61% field goal percentage.  If the Magic truly want to be a contender, Howard needs to demand the ball every time down.  He needs to average 18-20 shots a game and 60% from the field.  Howard can be the #1 player on a championship team, but he needs to do it on both ends.  You do that and this is an elite team.  Otherwise, it is a jump shooting team that will live and die by the 3-pointer.

STRENGTHS:  This is a solid roster.  Don't really need to shake it up.  Jameer, VC, Rashard, Gortat, Pietrus, and Redick can all play.  Howard's interior defense is the team's calling card.

WEAKNESSES: Howard's offense & free throw shoot and the team's reliance on the 3-point shot.  This offense needs to get statistically easier shots to take.  Also, Orlando needs to reduce expectations on Vince Carter.  He is a superstar talent without a superstar mindset.  He will be up and down all season.  Just pray that he is on a roll come playoffs.

PRETENDER #3: THE MAVERICKS

 Don't sleep on these guys.  They don't have quite what it takes to be a contender, but they are seriously good.  Caron Butler will be in a lot better shape this year than last year.  If he, Haywood, and Tyson Chandler stay healthy, they give this team a pair of balls the Mavericks haven't seen since Nick Van Exel.  Throw in the greatest shooting 7 footer ever in Dirk, Jason Kidd's passing abilities and new found 3 point accuracy, Jason Terry's scoring, and Marion's tempo changing athleticism and you have quite a team.  Heck, I am almost tempted to make them a contender.  If Kidd was at his peak, that would certainly be the case.  Another thing that makes he hesitate is that I am not 100% that Dirk can be the best player on a championship team.  Remember how Golden State shut him during his MVP season?  Golden State should not be able to shut down your best player if you have championship aspirations. 

STRENGTHS:  Legit size.  With Tyson Chandler, Brendan Haywood, and Dirk, this team matches up better sizewise than perhaps any team in the league.  They also have some versatility with Barea, Marion, and Beaubois able to change the tempo.  And if Chandler is healthy, he and Kidd will form a formidable alley-oop duo.

WEAKNESSES:  This team is still identified primarily as a jump shooting team.  They need to be able to get more baskets in the post.  Also, Jason Kidd is not what he once was.  He can run the offense, but will have a harder time getting to the rim, and will get torched by the quicker guards in the league.  Still, it would not be a huge surprise to see this team make it to the Western Conference Finals. 

PRETENDER #4: THE THUNDER

This team is done suprising people.  Everybody knows how good Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are.  And if you don't, then watch out.  Their playoff experience and then the summer they spent with USA basketball has helped them take their games to another level.  The leadership of Kevin Durant and Coach Scotty Brooks has created a very strong team culture in Oklahoma City.  And that is translating into wins. 

I also like some of the role players.  Sefolosha plays stifling perimeter defense, and Ibaka showed some nice things last season.

I still do not think that they have the fire power or the interior game to beat the elite teams.  But I think they are only one good post player away from being a true contender.  You already have KD and Westbrook, who can easily be the #1 and #2 players on a championship team.

STRENGTHS:  Future Hall of Famer Kevin Durant just keeps getting better and better.  Westbrook is an unbelievable athlete who can turn that talent into wins for his team.  Scotty Brooks has done an excellent job of building and sustaining a winning team-first culture.

WEAKNESSES:  Still need a legit big man in the post who they can go to for easy buckets.  Not convinced Cole Aldrich is the guy, but it will be interesting to see how much he can contribute this year.  Also, not really sure what position Jeff Green plays.  He is built like a small forward, but seems to spend a lot of time at the power forward to make room for Durant.  He is a productive player and excellent trade bait.

PRETENDER #5: THE SPURS

Anyone who loves basketball has to love Tim Duncan's San Antonio Spurs.  Even if you hate them because they have been beating your team, they have been the class of the NBA for the last 10 years.  Unfortunately, Tim Duncan is at the stage of his career that David Robinson was in when Duncan was drafted - still a formidable presence, but not quite what he once was.  And unless Tiago Splitter is all-star material, then the run is over for these Spurs.  Let's just hope that they stay healthy throughout the year.  Duncan is still good enough to be the #1 player on a championship team.  And it would not be a huge surprise to make it to the Western Conference Finals.  However, they don't have the size to compete with the Lakers and Mavericks in the west.  Not sure they have the dynamism to compete with Oklahoma City, either.

STRENGTHS: Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili can still play.  Popovich can still coach.  They have championship experience and know how to pace themselves throughout the season.  Also, I think Splitter will be a really nice addition for a team desperate for some interior length.

WEAKNESSES:  Health, health, and health.  The big 3 need to stay healthy.  Aside from them, they have major concerns.  Jefferson is a knucklehead who has never been as good as he thinks he is.  Blair is a beast, but an undersized beast.  He will get gobbled up by the bigger teams.  McDyess is 248 years old.  And George Hill will be worrying about his contract now that Parker is healthy and taking up a bunch of his minutes.  Maybe he will keep himself in the news by mailing out more nude photos of himself to NBA groupies.

PRETENDER #6: THE JAZZ

We are about to find out how good Al Jefferson is.  Was he a guy who just got numbers on a bad team?  Or can he really play?  The Jazz are hoping for the later.  They essentially let Boozer go and picked up this guy to replace him.  As a basketball fan, I would really love to see Coach Sloan win a championship.  But it ain't gonna happen this year.  Even if Kirilenko plays out of his mind and Al Jefferson dominates in the paint, they just do not have a championship roster.  Deron Williams can easily start on a championship team.  Heck, he's arguably the best point guard in the league.  But my gut tells me that he would be the second best player on a championship team. 

 STRENGTHS:  well coached team - Jerry Sloan teams always play tough.  Can't get much better than Deron Williams at the point.  Kirilenko, when he is on, is one of the best defenders in the league.  If Al Jefferson gets to play his natural position at power forward instead of center, he could be very productive.

WEAKNESS:  This team has talent, but it is just not as scary as past Jazz teams.  They need one more ELITE player to help out Williams.  This team might be one and done.  It will be an accomplishment to make the second round of the playoffs.  Kirilenko showed a couple of years ago that he is a basket case.  I'm sure the Jazz are just waiting for his contract to expire. 
   

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